The Washington Post, Nov
29, 2002
Rescue Venezuela
The Post
Friday, November 29, 2002; Page A42
THE WORLD'S fourth largest oil producer, a key American supplier and
ally, stands on the brink of a political explosion, and possibly a
civil war. Its capital increasingly is split between hostile armed
camps; military and police units are faced off against each other,
central highways are sometimes blocked by burning barricades. A
beleaguered international mediator is struggling to broker a deal
between government and opposition that would provide a peaceful way
out, but violence in the streets keeps undermining his efforts. Now
another potentially catalytic event looms on the horizon, a national
strike called by the opposition for this Monday.
This grave crisis has been building for weeks in Venezuela, a country
of 23 million people on the northern rim of South America, where a
breakdown of order would be a catastrophe for the region. The
situation demands vigorous intervention, at the highest levels, by
Venezuela's neighbors as well as by the United States. So far the
response has been dangerously laconic. Brazil and Colombia,
Venezuela's closest neighbors, are preoccupied with domestic matters;
the Bush administration's senior echelon is focused almost exclusively
on Iraq. Yet if the showdown between Venezuela's failed populist
president, Hugo Chavez, and his increasingly militant opposition
cannot be defused, the result could be an eruption of bloodshed at a
moment when Latin America is already shaken by political upheavals.
For now the burden of trying to preserve order in Caracas, Venezuela's
sprawling capital, is being borne by Cesar Gaviria, the veteran and
able secretary general of the Organization of American States. For the
past several weeks Mr. Gaviria has overseen talks between the
government and opposition; his aim is to provide a democratic outlet
for Mr. Chavez's opposition through the organization of early
elections. Mr. Chavez, a muddled socialist whose closest political
ally is Fidel Castro, was himself democratically elected in 1999; he
then used a series of referendums and new elections to rewrite the
constitution and extend his term until 2007, even as he wrecked
Venezuela's economy and antagonized the military and middle class. A
new election or referendum -- like that ordered yesterday by
Venezuela's national electoral council -- would offer a way out. But
Mr. Chavez has been reluctant to agree -- his supporters said they
would appeal the council's decision -- and increasingly the opposition
appears to hope that he can be forced out of office, as he was briefly
last April. Opposition supporters rally around some 140 military
officers who have rebelled against the government and occupied a city
square, while Mr. Chavez's followers vow to fight any coup in the
streets. Both sides have been arming themselves.
If Mr. Gaviria's mediation is to succeed, forceful intervention by the
United States and key Latin American governments is needed in the
coming days. After appearing to back the April coup, the Bush
administration has publicly committed itself to negotiations and a
democratic solution, but it has kept a relatively low profile. Next to
nothing has been heard, at least in public, from Brazil's new leftist
president, Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva. Yet the message to Caracas needs
to be clear: No interruption of democracy, by either side, will be
tolerated. National strikes are no more the solution than martial law.
Serving military officers belong in their barracks -- and Venezuelans
must vote on Mr. Chavez's future.
© 2002 The Washington Post Company
http://www.washingtonpost.com/wp-dyn/articles/A52148-2002Nov28.html